The sample: 96 division winners, 1995 through 2010. The Reds currently sit 6.5 games out and in fourth place with 1 game left in July.
Good news: 37 (39%) trailed as the calendar turned to August OR at a later date.
Bad news: Only 6 (6%) trailed by 6.5 or more on August 1st or later.
Good news: The 2007 Phillies were still 7 games behind on September 12th, and the 1995 Mariners were 13 out on August 2nd.
Bad news: No team has ever been in 4th place this late and recovered.
Good news: Three of the six teams trailing by this many games won the division without significant contributions from new acquisitions.
Bad news: Three (2010 Giants, 2009 Twins and to a lesser extent the 2000 A's) depended on extremely positive results from new players.
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