Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Best Opening Day wins in Reds History

MOST DRAMATIC

1) 2011 - Beat the Brewers, 7-6.  They were down 6-3 heading into the bottom of the 9th after a lackluster start from Edinson Volquez.  At that point, the Reds had only a 4% chance of winning the game.  Then:

- Phillips singled (8%)
- Votto walked (17%)
- Rolen reached on a fielder's choice, everyone safe (31%)
- Bruce K'd (19%)
- Gomes SF, Phillips scored (9%)

And finally, Ramon Hernandez hit a game-winning homer off of closer John Axford with 2 on and 2 out.  It's pretty hard to top a play that adds 91% to your win expectancy.

2) 2005 - Beat the Mets, 7-6.  Cincinnati trailed 6-4 entering the bottom of the 9th.  Pedro Martinez and Paul Wilson both gave up 3 runs in 6 innings, and then Weathers and Mercker gave up 3 more to put the Reds in a hole.  When the Reds came to bat for the final time, they had a 9% chance of victory.  Then:

- Kearns singled (18%)
- Dunn homered to tie it (64%)

And finally, Joe Randa hit a game-winning solo homer off of closer Braden Looper.

3) 1975 - beat the Dodgers, 2-1.  Cincinnati was tied with Los Angeles until the 14th inning.  Both Don Gullett (9.2 IP) and Don Sutton (7) had allowed only 1 run.  As a home team in the 9th and later, win probability is 63%.  Here's what happened in the 14th against reliever Charlie Hough:

- Concepcion single (71%)
- Passed ball (81%)
- Geronimo walk
- Griffey sac bunt (84%)
- Chaney FC, Concepcion out at home (63%)

And finally, George Foster hit a 2-out single to score Geronimo.

Honorable mention:

1988 won 5-4 in 12 innings over St. Louis on Kal Daniels walkoff single with 2 outs (38% wWPA).

1943 won 1-0 in 11 innings over St. Louis.  Johnny Vander Meer pitched the complete game shutout, Max Marshall knocked in Lonny Frey for the winning run. (31% wWPA)

2002 walkoff sac fly by Aaron Boone to beat Cubs 5-4

1945 won 7-6 in 11 innings over Pittsburgh on Dain Clay walkoff single

1990 won 8-4 in 11 innings at Houston to begin a championship season

1923 won 3-2 in 11 innings over St. Louis, Pete Donohue pitched a complete game

MOST DOMINATING

1914 - Beat the Cubs, 10-1.  Rube Benton pitched a complete-game 2-hitter.

1961 - Beat the Cubs, 7-1.  Complete game for Jim O'Toole, and the Reds pounded Glen Hobbie.  Frank Robinson and Wally Post homered.

1980 - Beat the Braves, 9-0.  Complete game, 3-hit shutout for Frank Pastore.  George Foster was 3 for 5 with 1 HR and 4 RBI.  The Reds chased Phil Niekro after 2 innings.

1984 - Beat the Mets, 8-1.  Complete game for Mario Soto, 3 RBI for Eddie Milner.  They knocked Mike Torrez out after 1.1 innings.

2012 - Beat the Marlins, 4-0.  7 shutout innings from Johnny Cueto, and the Reds did just enough against Mark Buehrle (2 runs) and Edward Mujica (2 more).

Thanks to baseball-reference.com, which I used as my primary resource, as usual.