Reds' 2012 salaries vs. 2011 WAR

I wanted to look at the value the Reds can expect to get for their money this season, using Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement, and player salaries from Cot's MLB Contracts (with pro-rated bonuses, deferred money, etc. included).

If you want to see the Reds' committed cash for 2012 and beyond, see: 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html


First, I divided everyone into two groups.


Group 1 = everyone with 6+ years of service time, or with salary above $600,000
Group 2 = everyone else


I used 2011 WAR, and obviously 2012 will differ...the whole point of the exercise is to use this as a baseline and see how everything ultimately shakes out in comparison.

GROUP 1

For Group 1, the entire amount of money committed = 81.243 million dollars
For Group 1, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 30.3
Millions spent per win above replacement = 2.68

More breakdowns for Group 1
Millions per WAR, hitters only =  2.08
Millions per WAR, pitchers only = 4.04 (thanks largely to Arroyo)
Millions per WAR, returning Reds only = 2.54


Let's take a look at individual players in Group 1, ranked by millions per WAR, going from best value to worst value.  The players at the very bottom have no values assigned, because dividing by zero (or negative numbers) isn't possible (or logical).


1) Miguel Cairo - 0.53
2) Ryan Hanigan - 0.6
3) Sean Marshall - 1.11
4) Jay Bruce - 1.52
5) Joey Votto - 1.59 - will jump to around 3 million per WAR next season, assuming production is the same
6) Homer Bailey - 1.62
7) Johnny Cueto - 1.93
8) Bill Bray - 2.03
9) Brandon Phillips - 2.04 - but can he keep producing on both offense and defense like he did in 2011?

(GROUP 1 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = POOR VALUE FOR MONEY)

10) Nick Masset - 4.00 - had a bad year in 2011, hopefully bounces back
11) Ryan Madson - 5.00 - and actually worse, now that he's out
12) Aroldis Chapman - 5.83 - this number would undoubtedly improve if he started instead
13) Scott Rolen - 6.28 - a healthy year would help a great deal
14) Ryan Ludwick - 8.33 - Reds are taking a risk, hoping he can post more than 0.3 WAR

(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)

15) Wilson Valdez
16) Jose Arredondo
17) Willie Harris
18) Paul Janish
19) Bronson Arroyo - being paid 12 million


Note that the salaries of Valdez, Arredondo, Harris and Janish are all under 1 million, so at least the amount of money "wasted" (if they don't improve in 2012) would not be terribly painful.  Also note that neither Madson nor Janish is on the major league active roster.



GROUP 2

For Group 2, the entire amount of money committed = 5.49 million dollars
For Group 2, the cumulative 2011 WAR = 11.5
Millions spent per win above replacement = 0.48


Obviously, any positive contributions from this second group (which are a necessity for any team) will make the millions/WAR appear much more favorable than Group 1.  Teams still deserve some credit for picking the right guys though.

Individual players, from best value to worst value (millions per WAR):
1) Mat Latos - 0.17
2) Drew Stubbs - 0.20
3) Chris Heisey - 0.31
4) Mike Leake - 0.34
5) Alfredo Simon - 0.44


(GROUP 2 AVERAGE CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = LESS VALUE FOR MONEY)


6) Zack Cozart - 0.69 - but with a healthy year, he'll be one of the best values on the team
7) Todd Frazier - 0.69 - we all like the guy, but very much hope he won't be needed
8) Sam LeCure - 0.98


(POSITIVE WAR CUTOFF - PLAYERS BELOW = MONEY PITS)


9) Andrew Brackman
10) Jordan Smith
11) Logan Ondrusek


Note that Brackman, Frazier and Smith are not on the active major league roster.  Also keep in mind that, at such comparatively small salaries, even a modest improvement this season for guys like Ondrusek or LeCure would make them excellent proportional values.

History of Cincinnati Reds Opening Day Starters

Thanks to Johnny Cueto, the Reds have had a true ace ready to go on Opening Day since 2012.  It's nice to get the season off to a good start.

Before Cueto (and Harang, who was at least respectable) Cincinnati fans have endured some atrocious Opening Day starters, most notably from 2002 through 2005:

2002 - Joey Hamilton
2003 - Jimmy Haynes
2004 - Cory Lidle
2005 - Paul Wilson

An unbelievable list, isn't it?

The most Opening Day starts by Cincinnati pitchers:
1) Mario Soto - 6 (1982-86, 1988)
2) Aaron Harang - 5 (2006-10)
2) Pete Donohue - 5 (1923-27)
4) Johnny Cueto - 4 (2012-15)
4) Jose Rijo - 4 (1992-95)
4) Bucky Walters - 4 (1939, 1942, 1945-46)
7) Tom Seaver, Tom Browning, Gary Nolan, Jim O'Toole, Ewell Blackwell, Paul Derringer, Si Johnson all had the honor 3 times

Mario Soto also has the most Opening Day wins (4) and sadly, no other starter has more than 2.  Dolf Luque recorded 2 as a starter and 1 in relief.

Aaron Harang has the most Opening Day losses (4).  Jose Rijo and Bucky Walters both had 3.

The best Cincinnati Opening Day starting pitching performances (in chronological order):
1925 Pete Donohue - 9 IP, 0 R
1928 Dolf Luque - 9 IP, 1 R
1940 Paul Derringer - 9 IP, 1 R
1943 Johnny Vander Meer - 11 IP, 0 R
1959 Bob Purkey - 9 IP, 1 R
1961 Jim O'Toole - 9 IP, 1 R
1963 Jim O'Toole - 9 IP, 1 R
1970 Jim Merritt - 9 IP, 1 R
1975 Don Gullett - 9.2 IP, 1 R (no decision)
1980 Frank Pastore - 9 IP, 0 R
1984 Mario Soto - 9 IP, 1 R
1993 Jose Rijo - 8 IP, 0 R

And now Cueto, who has gone 7 innings in each of his four starts:
2012 - 7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, WIN vs. Marlins
2013 - 7 IP, 1 R, 3 H, ND (Reds lost to Angels in extras)
2014 - 7 IP, 1 R, 3 H, LOSS vs. Cardinals (Wainwright)
2015 - 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, ND (Reds won vs. Pittsburgh)

The men behind the win 4/5/12: Reds 4, Marlins 0

I'm no Marlins fan, to be sure, but before we get on to celebrating this excellent Opening Day victory, I want to thank their organization for three things:

1) Being such good sports for taking an embarrassing stadium-opening loss to Kyle Lohse, then heading straight up to Cincinnati for an afternoon game against a much better pitcher.

2) Changing their name to Miami, so "Back to the Future 2" can look even more prescient.  The only problem was they had Miami facing the Cubs in the World Series, so one team has to move to the AL.

3) Changing their colors to a combination that thugs and wannabes apparently find even more appealing than that of our Redlegs.  For years, I've never been sure whether I might say "go Reds" to someone in a Cincinnati hat and have them shoot me.  The new Miami hat is everywhere, so honestly, a heartfelt thanks.

Now for the men behind today's win in front of a GABP record crowd...

1) Johnny Cueto.  2011's ace looks like 2012's ace, and I think we'd all be cool with that.  No runs, 3 hits in 7 innings.  Four strikeouts, 2 walks.  Nobody reached third base.  Beautiful work.

2) Jay Bruce.  Hopefully 2012's Bruce can sustain effectiveness at the plate and in the field after a little dropoff (mostly defensively) in 2011.  He was great today - 2 RBIs, including the first of the game (a sacrifice fly) in the 1st, and a solo homer in the 8th to put the Reds up 3-0.

3) Aroldis Chapman.  It's really frustrating that we need him in the bullpen this year, but if he's stuck there, let him keep dominating like he did today.  With only a 2-run lead in the top of the 8th inning, he held the Marlins in check (striking out two).

4) Zack Cozart.  Great to see our shortstop go 2 for 4 in his first regular season game since the unfortunate injury last season.  I really feel like this could be our first solid all-around SS since the Larkin days. 

1-0.  First place.  161 games to go.