An analysis of MLB mascots

I highly encourage anyone and everyone to look into the history of MLB mascots.  Just about every mascot has at least one embarrassing/amusing anecdote or backstory.

One good place to start is the Wikipedia article on the topic.  The highlight for me, especially as a Reds fan, was the line: "Gapper is sometimes referred to as Groper due to his inability to keep his hands off the female fans."  Whoever added that gem of a sentence is to be commended.

Four teams have no mascots - the Angels, Cubs, Dodgers and Yankees - and as you'll see below, that might be the best decision.

I've grouped the official mascots of MLB into several categories.

BIZARRE, PATHETIC AND WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEAM
(a.k.a. the "Olympic mascots")

DINGER (ROCKIES) - only exists because they found a triceratops skull while constructing Coors

SLIDER (INDIANS) - somehow this monstrosity is one of only three MLB mascots in the Mascot Hall of Fame!

JUNCTION JACK (ASTROS) - supposedly a rabbit railroad engineer, though he doesn't look the part here

LOU SEAL (GIANTS) - bravo for the wordplay

RAYMOND (RAYS) - even his body language is saying a big "WTF???"

SOUTHPAW (WHITE SOX) - the nappy condition of his fur suits this generic, lame excuse for a mascot

SLUGGERRR (ROYALS) - I know all mascots arrre disturrrbing but this picturrre rrreally will give me nightmarrres

WALLY (RED SOX) - much like the Reds' "Gapper" (who thankfully is not the primary mascot), this one is based entirely on a structural feature of the ballpark.

RELATIVELY NORMAL CHARACTERS, WITH POOR EXCUSES FOR EXISTENCE

D. BAXTER THE BOBCAT (DBACKS) - get it?  At least the pun made more sense when it was Bank One Ballpark (BOB).  Now it's really a stretch.

HOMER (BRAVES) - get it?  "Home of the Braves?"  LOLOLOLOLOL

RANGERS CAPTAIN (RANGERS) - OK, I guess I've seen Chuck Norris on a horse

T.C. BEAR (TWINS) - the backstory doesn't even try to sound convincing.  "Loosely modeled" after the mascot of an early sponsor?

ACE (BLUE JAYS) - in 2004, he lost his co-mascot girlfriend "Diamond."  In 2010, he lost his excuse to exist when Roy Halladay went to the Phillies.  Unsurprisingly, it looks like he's trying to play the skin flute in the image below.

MARINER MOOSE (MARINERS) - there's so much wrong with the first paragraph of his Wikipedia page, I might as well just paste it all here.  In 1990, a contest for children 14 and under was held to select a mascot for the team under then-owner Jeff Smulyan. Out of 2500 entries received, the club chose the "Mariner Moose," originally submitted by Ammon Spiller of Ferndale, Washington.^[1] The Moose made his debut on April 13, 1990,^[2] dancing on the field at the Kingdome to "The Future's So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades" by Timbuk 3.

COMPLETELY SENSICAL, BUT LAUGHABLE DESIGN

FREDBIRD (CARDINALS) - looks like a middle school-quality costume

THE ORIOLE BIRD (ORIOLES) - see description of Fredbird

PAWS (TIGERS) - paying $214 million to a fat man is Grrrrrrrrrrreat!  Tony would be proud.

SCREECH (NATIONALS) - patriotic theme makes sense, but the bird itself was the only living thing excited about its birth

BILLY THE MARLIN (MARLINS) - I honestly didn't mind this one that much until the re-branding...the new color scheme somehow makes him ten times more Sandusky

SWINGING FRIAR (PADRES) - speaking of Sandusky, don't let your kids near this guy's frock.

OLD AND OFFENSIVELY NAMED

CHIEF NOC-A-HOMA (BRAVES) - the shoes really complete the authentic ensemble

BJ BIRDY (BLUE JAYS) - with a name like that, it's no surprise he was ejected from a game for offensive gestures toward an umpire

DEFUNCT AND BIZARRE

DANDY (YANKEES) - at my hot dog stand, things like this would have to pay triple

ROOTIN' TOOTIN' RANGER (RANGERS) - the Yosemite Sam who stole Christmas

YOUPPI (EXPOS) - shown here in Canadiens gear.  While I hate that hockey team, at least Youppi survived.

We are left with only six survivors...

THE ELITE


MR. MET - he's been around (continuously) longer than any other mascot on this list

STOMPER (ATHLETICS) - while the name is only 15 years old, the elephant dates back to Connie Mack

PHILLIE PHANATIC (PHILLIES) - the prototype for "WTF?" mascots

PIRATE PARROT (PIRATES) - At age 6, he went on trial for introducing cocaine to Pittsburgh players (not joking) yet somehow the mascot lives on to this day.  Impressive!

BERNIE BREWER (BREWERS) - I support mustaches, I support drunks, and I support the fact that he's based on a real dude who camped out on top of a scoreboard as an attendance gimmick.

MR. REDLEGS - is watching you.  Always.  (scroll to the top of the page if you need reminding)

Reds 2012 WAR: Position Players

Using Fangraphs' wonderful WAR Graphs tool, here are some charts of the careers (by age) of Cincinnati's main projected infielders, outfielders, and pitchers for 2012.

Positions 3-6 

Note: Both Cozart and Frazier were 25, with WAR of 0.7 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: We'd obviously be delighted to get the same sort of production in 2012 from the right side of our infield that we got in 2011.  It's difficult to imagine the left side doing any worse...one would have to think that either Rolen or Cozart will stay healthy and productive enough to boost their WAR.  Outside of those two possibilities, I don't have much faith in any combination of Janish/Francisco/Valdez/Frazier/Cairo/call-ups to provide big numbers.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 13.1 (all these totals according to baseball-reference, not Fangraphs)
My estimate for 2012: 15.0


Positions 7-9

My thoughts on this: The entire outfield really needs to prove itself.  Bruce is clearly the class of this group but needs more consistency.  He and Stubbs went downhill from 2010 to 2011 (Bruce mostly due to defense, Stubbs mostly due to strikeouts).  It really feels like THE year for both of them to show improvement (at least getting very close to a return to 2010 levels) or they may never be quite the players for which we hoped.  I'm fine with Ludwick as a relatively low-risk acquisition, although obviously all of us wanted a splashier solution in LF...hopefully he and Heisey can push each other to at least a modestly successful performance.  Alonso, Sappelt, Lewis and Gomes are all gone from the 2011 group.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 6.2
My estimate for 2012: 8.0


Catchers

Note: Mesoraco was 23, with WAR of -0.1 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: Ramon's offense will be missed, but Hanigan is still a good contact hitter and solid defensively, and Devin has nowhere to go but up.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 3.6
My estimate for 2012: 4.0

Total WAR estimate for position players: 27 (+4.1 from 2011)

Conclusion: As everyone knows, the Two Princes (if you want to call me baby, just go ahead now) have moved to the AL and Brauny Lad is a 'roider on suspension.  While some want to automatically crown the Reds the offensive champions of the 2012 NL Central, we still need to see more out of guys other than Votto and Phillips.  One thing I always harp on is the fact that the Reds offense is extremely opportunistic and therefore somewhat overrated.  I do feel they will lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 (they were tied for second with Colorado, 27 runs behind St. Louis). 

The best- and worst-run MLB franchises

I've been looking at payroll vs. results from a variety of angles. Some argue, based on the Rays' ability to make the playoffs and the Marlins' two World Series titles, that the class disparity in MLB is overblown. While it's true that high-payroll teams can struggle if poorly managed and low-payroll teams can succeed with good management, scouting and a little luck, it's still much easier to win big if you pay big. I'll show a couple graphs to support my viewpoint in some upcoming posts. For now I wanted to focus on the teams that have been managed well and managed poorly.

I examined the period from 1998-2011. The dramatic payroll class disparity started forming in the mid-90s, but since 1998 was the most recent expansion and I wanted to average evenly across years for all teams, I started with that timepoint. I then broke the teams down into four tiers based on the average number of millions spent in payroll for each regular season win achieved.

Tier 1 ($1.1 million or more per win) - Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Cubs
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 7
Best-managed - Yankees (13 playoffs/4 titles), Red Sox (8/2)
Worst-managed - Mets (3/0), Cubs (4/0)

Tier 2 ($900,000 to 1.099 million per win) - Cardinals, Braves, Angels, Phillies, Giants, White Sox, Astros, Rangers, Orioles, Tigers, Mariners
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 4.36
Best-managed - Cardinals (8 playoffs/1 title), Braves (9/0), Angels (6/1)
Worst-managed - Orioles (0/0), Tigers (2/0), Mariners (2/0)

Tier 3 ($700,000 to 899,000 per win) - Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Indians, Blue Jays, Reds, Rockies, Brewers
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.57
Best-managed - Diamondbacks (5 playoffs/1 title)
Worst-managed - Blue Jays (0/0), Reds (1/0)

Tier 4 (less than $700,000 per win) - Twins, Athletics, Rays, Padres, Marlins, Nationals/Expos, Pirates, Royals
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.25
Best-managed - Twins (6 playoffs/0 titles), Athletics (5/0)
Worst-managed - Nationals (0/0), Pirates (0/0), Royals (0/0)

So during this 14-year period, if I had to rank the teams based on overall results achieved for money spent, I'd list them as follows.

The best:
1) Yankees
2) Cardinals
3) Twins
4) Braves
5) Red Sox
6) Diamondbacks
7) Athletics
8) Angels

The worst:
1) Orioles
2) Mets
3) Blue Jays
4) Cubs
5) Mariners
6) Tigers
7) Reds
8-10) Nationals/Pirates/Royals

Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending upward: Phillies and Rays (especially if either wins a title this season)
Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending downward: Dodgers, White Sox, Astros

Reds' 2011 offensive drop-off

An assertion commonly made about the failures of the 2011 Reds is that the lack of quality pitching was the primary reason. I wouldn't dispute any of the following:

- pitching was, and remains, a problem for making it to the postseason
- if the Reds were to make it back to the playoffs, they'd have even more problems because Cueto is the only guy who even comes close to measuring up with the top 3 of other staffs
- obtaining a #1 or #2 starter HAS to be an offseason priority

In spite of all this, I would make the argument that offense was a bigger determinant of the drop-off from 2010 to 2011. The simple counter-argument is "hey, they were second in the NL in runs per game, while the pitching staff was 12th in the league in ERA." I am more than aware of those numbers, but one thing I've harped on all season has been the variation from game to game. Overall the Reds have indeed scored a lot of runs, but they've also come up empty a lot.

Let's compare the Reds' hitting and pitching performances with 2010, and then with this year's NL playoff teams.

2011 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.13) - 41% (67 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 62% (100 of 162 games)

2010 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.33) - 49% (80 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 65% (106 of 162 games)

One important note is that virtually any team will have a higher "success rate" for pitching than hitting simply by nature of this mathematical approach. You can't read much into the comparison of hitting vs. pitching for one given team, but comparing across teams does give you a good idea of where they stand. The numbers above clearly show that hitting took a bigger dive than pitching.

More evidence:
- Pitching WAR actually went up from 2010 to 2011, from 7.5 to 10.2
- Offensive WAR went down dramatically, from 28.5 to 21.6
- Almost all positions saw a drop in OPS: C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF and CF. Only 2B and RF went up.

We all know the reasons why...injuries (Rolen and Cozart), backsliding performance (Janish and Stubbs), and easily foreseeable failure (Renteria and Gomes).

How the Reds rank this season compared to the playoff teams...

Successful hitting games:
St. Louis 75
Milwaukee 72
Cincinnati 67
Philadelphia 65
Arizona 65

Successful pitching/defense games:
Philadelphia 121
Milwaukee 104
Cincinnati 100
St. Louis 98
Arizona 97

Certainly, Cincinnati's numbers were buoyed a bit by the fact they allowed half the unearned runs (42) that St. Louis did (84) with its shoddy defense. Still, they don't appear to be dramatically behind in either category.

Some timeliness would certainly help - the Reds were by far the worst of these five teams in one-run games, and also failed to capitalize on good pitching performances when they got them, as seen here:

Winning percentage in games when allowing 3 or fewer runs:
Arizona .872 (68-10)
St. Louis .851 (63-11)
Milwaukee .828 (72-15)
Philadelphia .802 (81-20)
Cincinnati .701 (54-23)

Not that this prediction is particularly risky, but I'm highly confident that neither Arizona nor Milwaukee will come within 5 of this season's win totals in 2012. Arizona not only bested its Pythagorean expectation (88) by 6, but the numbers mentioned earlier for games with good pitching and hitting would suggest (by correlation) that they'd win far fewer. Milwaukee should still be good, but are more realistically an 88-90 win club with their current roster than a 96-win team. They might repeat, but it won't be as easy as this year.

I'll end this discussion with a comparison of WAR totals:
Philadelphia - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 30 for pitching = 52.2
Milwaukee - 24.3 for hitting/defense, 17.8 for pitching = 42.1
St. Louis - 30.0 for hitting/defense, 11.0 for pitching = 41
Arizona - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 13.7 for pitching = 35.8
Cincinnati - 24.8 for hitting/defense, 10.2 for pitching = 35

If you add these numbers to a "replacement level" squad that would win 30% (48.6) of its games, you would get the following expectations:

Philadelphia - 101 (actually won 102)
Milwaukee - 91 (actually won 96)
St. Louis - 90 (actually won 90)
Arizona - 84 (actually won 94, Pythag expectation was 88)
Cincinnati - 84 (actually won 79, Pythag expectation was 83)

One last prediction: If Cincinnati remains essentially the same squad next season, they should win 84-85 games but that won't be enough to compete for the playoffs. If they solve at least two of the three main problem positions (SS/3B/LF) they will compete for the division title but won't be able to win a playoff round. If they solve a couple of those positions AND add a high-caliber starting pitcher or two, they stand an excellent chance of making their first NLCS appearance since 1995.

2011 Reds with 1+ WAR change from 2010

The positive shifts in WAR from 2010 to 2011:
1) Leake -0.5 to 2.1
2) Cueto 2.0 to 4.3
3) Cordero 0.4 to 2.3
4) Phillips 2.6 to 4.2
5) Cairo 0.4 to 1.7

The negative shifts:
1) Bruce 4.6 to 1.3 (mostly due to drop in defensive value)
2) Rolen 3.5 to 0.6 (mostly due to injury)
3) Arroyo 2.1 to -0.5 (mostly due to...um...getting hammered almost every time he pitched)
4) Stubbs 5.2 to 3.0 (a combination of all the strikeouts and less defensive value)
5) Volquez 0.5 to -1.0
6) Maloney 0.4 to -0.8

The sum of all the changes listed here: -4.0 WAR

2011 Cincinnati Reds MVPs and LVPs

This one is based only on Wins Above Replacement.

Offensive WAR
MVP: Votto 5.9
LVP: Janish -1.3

Defensive WAR
MVP: Janish 1.3
LVP: Bruce -1.1 (one of the more surprising developments this year was his drop in defensive value)

Overall WAR
MVP: Votto 6.6
LVP: Francisco -0.4

Pitching WAR
MVP: Cueto 4.3
LVP: Volquez -1.0

10,000 wins

Since the Reds finished with only 79 wins in 2011, they're still 6 short of becoming the sixth team ever to win 10,000 games. Unfortunately that means they'll probably reach the milestone on the road in 2012. Unless they win all six of their games at home to start the season, it will happen some time during the ensuing 10-game road trip.