In 2012, the Cincinnati Reds offense struggled in one very major way. Only Votto (.474), Hanigan (.365) and Ludwick (.346) got on base consistently. Here were their OBP ranks by position in MLB:
C - .333 (10th)
1B - .423 (1st)
2B - .306 (22nd)
3B - .304 (23rd)
SS - .284 (25th)
LF - .339 (10th)
CF - .282 (30th)
RF - .320 (21st)
Note: Reds pitchers were also above average with a .176 OBP (9th in MLB) but the 9th spot in the order isn't something you rely on for production on a game-to-game basis.
And here are their rankings through 40 games in 2013:
C - .290 (21st)
1B - .455 (1st) - leading all other teams by 37 points
2B - .333 (11th)
3B - .314 (19th)
SS - .250 (28th)
LF - .302 (21st)
CF - .468 (1st) - leading all other teams by 73 points
RF - .303 (19th)
As you can see, the only huge change was in CF. Votto's OBP is actually lower this year than last, but the team number for first base has improved as a result of him having 100% of the playing time so far this year.
Choo is almost single-handedly responsible for the team OBP jumping from an abysmal .315 last year (22nd in the league) to .335 in 2013, which now ranks third in baseball. Even with Cozart's weak bat behind him, Choo is tied for the MLB lead in runs scored (33). Just imagine the numbers he might be putting up with Ludwick healthy and BP back in the 2-hole...
Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.
Showing posts with label hitting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hitting. Show all posts
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Friday, June 22, 2012
Reds All-Time Offensive Leaders in Interleague Play
Since interleague play began in 1997 the Cincinnati Reds have, without question, been a team in flux. They've made only one playoff appearance (in 2010) and the lineup, aside from a few mainstays, has shifted on an almost annual basis.
For example, the cutoff I used in comparing rate stats for this post was 55 interleague games - which is not even equivalent to four full seasons of such contests. Even so, only 10 players made the mark.
Active players underlined. All statistics through June 21st, 2012 - so they exclude the Reds/Twins series.
Most games:
1) Griffey - 115
2) Phillips - 106
3) Dunn - 98
4) Casey - 93
5) Larkin - 71
6) Bruce - 70
7) Votto - 67
8) Reese - 66
9) LaRue - 61
10) A. Boone - 55
Most hits:
1) Phillips - 132
2) Griffey - 105
3) Casey - 94
4) Dunn - 87
5) Larkin - 82
Most doubles:
1) Tie - Larkin, Votto and Phillips - 18
4) Casey - 17
5) Tie - Dunn and Bruce - 16
Most triples:
1) Larkin - 4
2) Numerous others tied with 1
Most home runs:
1) Griffey - 32
2) Dunn - 28
3) Votto - 18
4) Phillips - 17
Most RBIs:
1) Griffey - 71
2) Phillips - 62
3) Dunn - 56
4) Votto - 49
5) Casey - 43
Most walks:
1) Dunn - 59
2) Griffey - 43
3) Larkin - 39
4) Votto - 38
5) Casey - 30
Most strikeouts:
1) Dunn - 125
2) Griffey - 102
3) Bruce - 72
Most stolen bases:
1) Phillips - 20
2) Reese - 14
3) Tie - Freel and Stubbs - 10
Best batting average:
1) Phillips - .317
2) Larkin - .314
3) Votto - .298
Best on-base percentage:
1) Larkin - .401
2) Votto - .394
3) Dunn - .361
The biggest surprises from this list, for me:
- Brandon Phillips dominated a bunch of categories. I didn't expect him to have the best batting average or second-most RBIs. Very impressive.
- Joey Votto with a batting average below .300 is a shocker.
For example, the cutoff I used in comparing rate stats for this post was 55 interleague games - which is not even equivalent to four full seasons of such contests. Even so, only 10 players made the mark.
Active players underlined. All statistics through June 21st, 2012 - so they exclude the Reds/Twins series.
Most games:
1) Griffey - 115
2) Phillips - 106
3) Dunn - 98
4) Casey - 93
5) Larkin - 71
6) Bruce - 70
7) Votto - 67
8) Reese - 66
9) LaRue - 61
10) A. Boone - 55
Most hits:
1) Phillips - 132
2) Griffey - 105
3) Casey - 94
4) Dunn - 87
5) Larkin - 82
Most doubles:
1) Tie - Larkin, Votto and Phillips - 18
4) Casey - 17
5) Tie - Dunn and Bruce - 16
Most triples:
1) Larkin - 4
2) Numerous others tied with 1
Most home runs:
1) Griffey - 32
2) Dunn - 28
3) Votto - 18
4) Phillips - 17
Most RBIs:
1) Griffey - 71
2) Phillips - 62
3) Dunn - 56
4) Votto - 49
5) Casey - 43
Most walks:
1) Dunn - 59
2) Griffey - 43
3) Larkin - 39
4) Votto - 38
5) Casey - 30
Most strikeouts:
1) Dunn - 125
2) Griffey - 102
3) Bruce - 72
Most stolen bases:
1) Phillips - 20
2) Reese - 14
3) Tie - Freel and Stubbs - 10
Best batting average:
1) Phillips - .317
2) Larkin - .314
3) Votto - .298
Best on-base percentage:
1) Larkin - .401
2) Votto - .394
3) Dunn - .361
The biggest surprises from this list, for me:
- Brandon Phillips dominated a bunch of categories. I didn't expect him to have the best batting average or second-most RBIs. Very impressive.
- Joey Votto with a batting average below .300 is a shocker.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
First 3 versus Last 3
I'm talking about innings.
The Reds have scored 58 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is tied for best in the NL with Colorado.
The Reds have allowed only 29 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is best in all of MLB.
Clearly they dominate the end of games, which has kept us in the race.
The first three innings of the game are an entirely different story.
Cincinnati has only scored 33 total runs in the opening three frames, which is worse than all teams except Oakland (32), Pittsburgh (32) and the Mets (also 33).
For contrast, St. Louis has scored more runs in the third inning alone (35).
If you look at only the 2nd and 3rd innings specifically, the Reds have scored 13 total runs, easily the worst in MLB and a product of the weak bottom of our order.
There have been only two games so far this year where the Reds have scored in two or more of the first three innings - April 28th against Houston and May 6th at Pittsburgh, both victories.
The Reds have scored 58 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is tied for best in the NL with Colorado.
The Reds have allowed only 29 runs in innings 7-8-9, which is best in all of MLB.
Clearly they dominate the end of games, which has kept us in the race.
The first three innings of the game are an entirely different story.
Cincinnati has only scored 33 total runs in the opening three frames, which is worse than all teams except Oakland (32), Pittsburgh (32) and the Mets (also 33).
For contrast, St. Louis has scored more runs in the third inning alone (35).
If you look at only the 2nd and 3rd innings specifically, the Reds have scored 13 total runs, easily the worst in MLB and a product of the weak bottom of our order.
There have been only two games so far this year where the Reds have scored in two or more of the first three innings - April 28th against Houston and May 6th at Pittsburgh, both victories.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Review of the Reds' April Offense
The last three seasons, the Reds have finished April with strikingly similar records:
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012
As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends. I'll keep each summary brief. Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split). In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.
One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair. Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month. A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.
BATTING ORDER:
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.
Leadoff:
2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)
Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49
The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.
The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season. BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.
BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:
Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010. Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions. We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.
The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.
Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46
Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56
Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55
SITUATIONAL TRENDS:
Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123
Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49
Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise. We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws. 1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term. C and 2B should be okay. 3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.
12-11 in 2010
14-13 in 2011 (1-0 in March, 13-13 in April)
11-11 in 2012
As we all know, they went on to quite different fates in 2010 and 2011, so it's worth taking a look at some of the overall trends. I'll keep each summary brief. Let me start by saying that OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) was the main metric I used, and for splits, the sOPS+ (relative to the league average for that particular split). In both cases, 100 would be a league average score, with a higher score being preferred.
One caveat - the Reds have started somewhat slowly on offense in each season, so comparing April numbers to full seasons of work isn't entirely fair. Therefore, I considered only the trends which are so numerically striking that they can't be explained away with the smaller difference month-to-month. A drop or rise of only 10-15 points in OPS+ wouldn't be significant enough to warrant discussion until later this season.
BATTING ORDER:
The Reds continue to have a ton of trouble with the 1st and 4th positions in the lineup.
Leadoff:
2010 sOPS+ = 92
2011 = 113
2012 = 8 (not a misprint)
Cleanup:
2010 sOPS+ = 98
2011 = 78
2012 = 49
The leadoff problem is not confined to Stubbs, although he is the worst offender - Cozart and Phillips haven't performed well either in their roughly equal share of the plate appearances.
The cleanup position should be kept out of Rolen's hands for good - he has an alarming minus-12 sOPS+ batting in the #4 spot this season. BP or Bruce would serve us better in that spot.
BY DEFENSIVE POSITION:
Five of the eight non-pitching positions have an alarming downward trend since 2010. Catcher and second base are less worrisome, due to talent, track record and simply higher scores than the other positions. We can have reasonable confidence that Hanigan, Mesoraco and BP, if all remain healthy enough, will put up solid enough offensive numbers to justify inclusion in the lineup.
The same cannot be said for the other three problem positions, which we all know by heart at this point:
3B, LF and CF.
Third base:
2010 = 122
2011 = 94
2012 = 46
Left field:
2010 = 101
2011 = 88
2012 = 56
Center field:
2010 = 105
2011 = 97
2012 = 55
SITUATIONAL TRENDS:
Positive changes:
High-leverage sOPS+ = 110 - 102 - 127 (in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively)
sOPS+ when leading off innings = 105 - 97 - 123
Negative changes:
sOPS+ with RISP: 113 - 109 - 86
sOPS+ with 2 OUT: 119 - 96 - 78
sOPS+ in Night games: 116 - 98 - 67
sOPS+ leading off the game: 109 - 102 - 49
Conclusions:
None of these trends should really come as a surprise. We knew that the personnel on this team had some offensive flaws. 1B, SS and RF look very promising both short- and long-term. C and 2B should be okay. 3B, LF and CF are true problems, and are strongly interconnected with the leadoff and cleanup inadequacy.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Reds' 2011 offensive drop-off
An assertion commonly made about the failures of the 2011 Reds is that the lack of quality pitching was the primary reason. I wouldn't dispute any of the following:
- pitching was, and remains, a problem for making it to the postseason
- if the Reds were to make it back to the playoffs, they'd have even more problems because Cueto is the only guy who even comes close to measuring up with the top 3 of other staffs
- obtaining a #1 or #2 starter HAS to be an offseason priority
In spite of all this, I would make the argument that offense was a bigger determinant of the drop-off from 2010 to 2011. The simple counter-argument is "hey, they were second in the NL in runs per game, while the pitching staff was 12th in the league in ERA." I am more than aware of those numbers, but one thing I've harped on all season has been the variation from game to game. Overall the Reds have indeed scored a lot of runs, but they've also come up empty a lot.
Let's compare the Reds' hitting and pitching performances with 2010, and then with this year's NL playoff teams.
2011 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.13) - 41% (67 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 62% (100 of 162 games)
2010 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.33) - 49% (80 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 65% (106 of 162 games)
One important note is that virtually any team will have a higher "success rate" for pitching than hitting simply by nature of this mathematical approach. You can't read much into the comparison of hitting vs. pitching for one given team, but comparing across teams does give you a good idea of where they stand. The numbers above clearly show that hitting took a bigger dive than pitching.
More evidence:
- Pitching WAR actually went up from 2010 to 2011, from 7.5 to 10.2
- Offensive WAR went down dramatically, from 28.5 to 21.6
- Almost all positions saw a drop in OPS: C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF and CF. Only 2B and RF went up.
We all know the reasons why...injuries (Rolen and Cozart), backsliding performance (Janish and Stubbs), and easily foreseeable failure (Renteria and Gomes).
How the Reds rank this season compared to the playoff teams...
Successful hitting games:
St. Louis 75
Milwaukee 72
Cincinnati 67
Philadelphia 65
Arizona 65
Successful pitching/defense games:
Philadelphia 121
Milwaukee 104
Cincinnati 100
St. Louis 98
Arizona 97
Certainly, Cincinnati's numbers were buoyed a bit by the fact they allowed half the unearned runs (42) that St. Louis did (84) with its shoddy defense. Still, they don't appear to be dramatically behind in either category.
Some timeliness would certainly help - the Reds were by far the worst of these five teams in one-run games, and also failed to capitalize on good pitching performances when they got them, as seen here:
Winning percentage in games when allowing 3 or fewer runs:
Arizona .872 (68-10)
St. Louis .851 (63-11)
Milwaukee .828 (72-15)
Philadelphia .802 (81-20)
Cincinnati .701 (54-23)
Not that this prediction is particularly risky, but I'm highly confident that neither Arizona nor Milwaukee will come within 5 of this season's win totals in 2012. Arizona not only bested its Pythagorean expectation (88) by 6, but the numbers mentioned earlier for games with good pitching and hitting would suggest (by correlation) that they'd win far fewer. Milwaukee should still be good, but are more realistically an 88-90 win club with their current roster than a 96-win team. They might repeat, but it won't be as easy as this year.
I'll end this discussion with a comparison of WAR totals:
Philadelphia - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 30 for pitching = 52.2
Milwaukee - 24.3 for hitting/defense, 17.8 for pitching = 42.1
St. Louis - 30.0 for hitting/defense, 11.0 for pitching = 41
Arizona - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 13.7 for pitching = 35.8
Cincinnati - 24.8 for hitting/defense, 10.2 for pitching = 35
If you add these numbers to a "replacement level" squad that would win 30% (48.6) of its games, you would get the following expectations:
Philadelphia - 101 (actually won 102)
Milwaukee - 91 (actually won 96)
St. Louis - 90 (actually won 90)
Arizona - 84 (actually won 94, Pythag expectation was 88)
Cincinnati - 84 (actually won 79, Pythag expectation was 83)
One last prediction: If Cincinnati remains essentially the same squad next season, they should win 84-85 games but that won't be enough to compete for the playoffs. If they solve at least two of the three main problem positions (SS/3B/LF) they will compete for the division title but won't be able to win a playoff round. If they solve a couple of those positions AND add a high-caliber starting pitcher or two, they stand an excellent chance of making their first NLCS appearance since 1995.
- pitching was, and remains, a problem for making it to the postseason
- if the Reds were to make it back to the playoffs, they'd have even more problems because Cueto is the only guy who even comes close to measuring up with the top 3 of other staffs
- obtaining a #1 or #2 starter HAS to be an offseason priority
In spite of all this, I would make the argument that offense was a bigger determinant of the drop-off from 2010 to 2011. The simple counter-argument is "hey, they were second in the NL in runs per game, while the pitching staff was 12th in the league in ERA." I am more than aware of those numbers, but one thing I've harped on all season has been the variation from game to game. Overall the Reds have indeed scored a lot of runs, but they've also come up empty a lot.
Let's compare the Reds' hitting and pitching performances with 2010, and then with this year's NL playoff teams.
2011 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.13) - 41% (67 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 62% (100 of 162 games)
2010 Reds
games where they scored above league average runs (4.33) - 49% (80 of 162 games)
games where they allowed lower than league average runs - 65% (106 of 162 games)
One important note is that virtually any team will have a higher "success rate" for pitching than hitting simply by nature of this mathematical approach. You can't read much into the comparison of hitting vs. pitching for one given team, but comparing across teams does give you a good idea of where they stand. The numbers above clearly show that hitting took a bigger dive than pitching.
More evidence:
- Pitching WAR actually went up from 2010 to 2011, from 7.5 to 10.2
- Offensive WAR went down dramatically, from 28.5 to 21.6
- Almost all positions saw a drop in OPS: C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF and CF. Only 2B and RF went up.
We all know the reasons why...injuries (Rolen and Cozart), backsliding performance (Janish and Stubbs), and easily foreseeable failure (Renteria and Gomes).
How the Reds rank this season compared to the playoff teams...
Successful hitting games:
St. Louis 75
Milwaukee 72
Cincinnati 67
Philadelphia 65
Arizona 65
Successful pitching/defense games:
Philadelphia 121
Milwaukee 104
Cincinnati 100
St. Louis 98
Arizona 97
Certainly, Cincinnati's numbers were buoyed a bit by the fact they allowed half the unearned runs (42) that St. Louis did (84) with its shoddy defense. Still, they don't appear to be dramatically behind in either category.
Some timeliness would certainly help - the Reds were by far the worst of these five teams in one-run games, and also failed to capitalize on good pitching performances when they got them, as seen here:
Winning percentage in games when allowing 3 or fewer runs:
Arizona .872 (68-10)
St. Louis .851 (63-11)
Milwaukee .828 (72-15)
Philadelphia .802 (81-20)
Cincinnati .701 (54-23)
Not that this prediction is particularly risky, but I'm highly confident that neither Arizona nor Milwaukee will come within 5 of this season's win totals in 2012. Arizona not only bested its Pythagorean expectation (88) by 6, but the numbers mentioned earlier for games with good pitching and hitting would suggest (by correlation) that they'd win far fewer. Milwaukee should still be good, but are more realistically an 88-90 win club with their current roster than a 96-win team. They might repeat, but it won't be as easy as this year.
I'll end this discussion with a comparison of WAR totals:
Philadelphia - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 30 for pitching = 52.2
Milwaukee - 24.3 for hitting/defense, 17.8 for pitching = 42.1
St. Louis - 30.0 for hitting/defense, 11.0 for pitching = 41
Arizona - 22.2 for hitting/defense, 13.7 for pitching = 35.8
Cincinnati - 24.8 for hitting/defense, 10.2 for pitching = 35
If you add these numbers to a "replacement level" squad that would win 30% (48.6) of its games, you would get the following expectations:
Philadelphia - 101 (actually won 102)
Milwaukee - 91 (actually won 96)
St. Louis - 90 (actually won 90)
Arizona - 84 (actually won 94, Pythag expectation was 88)
Cincinnati - 84 (actually won 79, Pythag expectation was 83)
One last prediction: If Cincinnati remains essentially the same squad next season, they should win 84-85 games but that won't be enough to compete for the playoffs. If they solve at least two of the three main problem positions (SS/3B/LF) they will compete for the division title but won't be able to win a playoff round. If they solve a couple of those positions AND add a high-caliber starting pitcher or two, they stand an excellent chance of making their first NLCS appearance since 1995.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Pitch type values for the four Red regulars
Fangraphs has all kinds of handy stats, including sortable pitch type values. Only four Reds have accumulated sufficient at-bats to really form the basis for judgment in 2011 (or to "qualify for the batting title"), and you probably know which ones - Votto, Phillips, Stubbs and Bruce.
Fastballs:
Votto is 2nd best in MLB
BP, Stubbs and Bruce are all moderately good
Sliders:
Bruce is 6th best in MLB
Votto is neutral
Stubbs and BP are both terrible
Cutters:
Votto and BP are both in the top 30 of MLB
Bruce is moderately good
Stubbs is terrible
Curveballs:
Votto is #37 in MLB
Stubbs is neutral
Bruce is moderately bad
BP is terrible
Changeups:
Votto, Bruce and BP are all moderately good
Stubbs is terrible
Fastballs:
Votto is 2nd best in MLB
BP, Stubbs and Bruce are all moderately good
Sliders:
Bruce is 6th best in MLB
Votto is neutral
Stubbs and BP are both terrible
Cutters:
Votto and BP are both in the top 30 of MLB
Bruce is moderately good
Stubbs is terrible
Curveballs:
Votto is #37 in MLB
Stubbs is neutral
Bruce is moderately bad
BP is terrible
Changeups:
Votto, Bruce and BP are all moderately good
Stubbs is terrible
Reds who love/hate GABP
Most teams play better at home for obvious reasons. And just about any hitter would prefer to blast away in a place like Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark, where homers come easy. But strangely, 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto is not such a hitter. For his career, he hits 32 points higher on the road. In spite of the slightly diminished home run totals, he hits a lot more doubles and singles in road games. Thank goodness the Reds can rely on his bat on the road (as they did last night against the Cubs), because most of his teammates really scuffle...
Here's a list of some Reds with dramatically (and consistently) better averages at GABP:
Jay Bruce (47 points higher for his career, 23 more home runs at home)
Drew Stubbs (56 points higher for his career, 13 more home runs at home)
Ramon Hernandez (+42 in 2009, +55 in 2010, and +129 in 2011)
Ryan Hanigan is +37 at home for his career, in spite of being +64 on the road in 2011.
Paul Janish was far better away in 2010, but is far better at home in 2011. All in all he averages out to about a .220 lifetime hitter no matter the location, so his splits hardly even merit discussion.
Here's a list of some Reds with dramatically (and consistently) better averages at GABP:
Jay Bruce (47 points higher for his career, 23 more home runs at home)
Drew Stubbs (56 points higher for his career, 13 more home runs at home)
Ramon Hernandez (+42 in 2009, +55 in 2010, and +129 in 2011)
Ryan Hanigan is +37 at home for his career, in spite of being +64 on the road in 2011.
Paul Janish was far better away in 2010, but is far better at home in 2011. All in all he averages out to about a .220 lifetime hitter no matter the location, so his splits hardly even merit discussion.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Bad offense, meet bad bullpen
If you watched today's game on FOX, you heard Mitch Williams blaming the Reds' woes on pitching, because that's the "intelligent" thing for an analyst to say. As I've bemoaned on this blog the past couple months, the offense has been the real problem, and it's been that way the entire season. Eliminating wins where both the offense and pitching/defense were good, and losses where both phases were bad, you get:
March/April:
3 "hitting wins" and 6 "hitting losses" Score: -3
3 "pitching wins" and 3 "pitching losses" Score: 0
May: Hitting -2, Pitching 0
June: Hitting -7, Pitching +3
July: Hitting -4, Pitching +1
August so far: Hitting -2, Pitching +2
Unfortunately, this month we've had a new problem arise: the bullpen. It performed admirably through July, and still has an ERA half a run lower than last season, but has completely fallen off the table in August with an ERA near 6.
Ondrusek, Bray, LeCure and Masset have all had an atrocious August, and even Chapman imploded in today's game. Only the much-maligned Francisco Cordero has been consistent, and Arredondo has done okay as well.
Want something positive? Although it's not, and shouldn't be, his natural spot in the order, BP has been ridiculous in his 3 games back in the leadoff spot. 9 for 13 and a walk, 1 home run and 4 RBI.
Dontrelle Willis, meanwhile, has thrown 6 quality starts among his 8 total this season, and is still winless. See what I mean about offense?
March/April:
3 "hitting wins" and 6 "hitting losses" Score: -3
3 "pitching wins" and 3 "pitching losses" Score: 0
May: Hitting -2, Pitching 0
June: Hitting -7, Pitching +3
July: Hitting -4, Pitching +1
August so far: Hitting -2, Pitching +2
Unfortunately, this month we've had a new problem arise: the bullpen. It performed admirably through July, and still has an ERA half a run lower than last season, but has completely fallen off the table in August with an ERA near 6.
Ondrusek, Bray, LeCure and Masset have all had an atrocious August, and even Chapman imploded in today's game. Only the much-maligned Francisco Cordero has been consistent, and Arredondo has done okay as well.
Want something positive? Although it's not, and shouldn't be, his natural spot in the order, BP has been ridiculous in his 3 games back in the leadoff spot. 9 for 13 and a walk, 1 home run and 4 RBI.
Dontrelle Willis, meanwhile, has thrown 6 quality starts among his 8 total this season, and is still winless. See what I mean about offense?
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Reds' offense: MLB best and worst stats and splits
Categories where the Reds are in the best ten in MLB offensively:
5th in Runs Scored
6th in Home Runs
9th in OPS
8th in OBP
6th in BB
4th lowest GIDP
Categories where the Reds are in the worst ten:
8th most strikeouts
21st in stolen bases
8th most times caught stealing
27th in triples
Splits in the best ten:
2nd in BA against left-handed starters
2nd in BA as lefties against lefties
3rd in BA as lefties against righties
4th in BA as righties against lefties
2nd in BA in day games
7th in BA at home
4th in BA against "power" pitchers
5th in BA in "medium leverage" situations
10th in BA in "low leverage" situations
6th in BA with 1 out
4th in runs scored in the 4th inning
6th in runs scored in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings
5th in runs scored in the 9th inning
2nd in BA as non-starters
6th in BA in the month of May
5th in BA with a runner on 2nd, and with runners on 1st and 2nd
7th in BA with runners on 1st and 3rd
Splits in the worst ten:
21st in BA in night games
25th against "finesse" pitchers
24th in BA on bunts
25th in BA on line drives (unlucky?)
24th in BA leading off the game
21st in OBP leading off innings
25th in BA against groundball pitchers
29th in BA in "high leverage" situations
25th in BA after 0-2 count
29th in BA with bases loaded
25th in BA with 2 outs and RISP
2nd in GIDP with bases loaded
23rd in BA with runners on 2nd and 3rd
3rd most strikeouts with bases loaded
6th highest LOB/game (and worst in MLB for this stat on the road)
26th in runs scored in the third inning
27th in runs scored in the eighth inning (last night was a nice exception)
27th in sacrifice flies on the road
28th in BA in the month of August
So in spite of the first set of stats, which sound promising, you can see why (lack of clutch hitting) the Reds are so poor in 1-run games, and why their losses are more often due to hitting than pitching. The Reds will score ten runs in one game, and then go completely to sleep for a few days in a row.
To update an earlier statistic, in their 61 losses:
- the Reds' pitching and defense have given up more than league average runs/game only 32 times
- the Reds have failed to score league average runs/game 49 times
Likewise, the pitching gets too little credit for the wins. In the 58 so far:
- the Reds have scored at least league average runs/game 41 times
- the Reds have held the opposition below league average 47 times
So in all the 119 games combined, the Reds' offense has done its job 53 times (45%), and the pitching/defense 76 times (64%).
5th in Runs Scored
6th in Home Runs
9th in OPS
8th in OBP
6th in BB
4th lowest GIDP
Categories where the Reds are in the worst ten:
8th most strikeouts
21st in stolen bases
8th most times caught stealing
27th in triples
Splits in the best ten:
2nd in BA against left-handed starters
2nd in BA as lefties against lefties
3rd in BA as lefties against righties
4th in BA as righties against lefties
2nd in BA in day games
7th in BA at home
4th in BA against "power" pitchers
5th in BA in "medium leverage" situations
10th in BA in "low leverage" situations
6th in BA with 1 out
4th in runs scored in the 4th inning
6th in runs scored in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings
5th in runs scored in the 9th inning
2nd in BA as non-starters
6th in BA in the month of May
5th in BA with a runner on 2nd, and with runners on 1st and 2nd
7th in BA with runners on 1st and 3rd
Splits in the worst ten:
21st in BA in night games
25th against "finesse" pitchers
24th in BA on bunts
25th in BA on line drives (unlucky?)
24th in BA leading off the game
21st in OBP leading off innings
25th in BA against groundball pitchers
29th in BA in "high leverage" situations
25th in BA after 0-2 count
29th in BA with bases loaded
25th in BA with 2 outs and RISP
2nd in GIDP with bases loaded
23rd in BA with runners on 2nd and 3rd
3rd most strikeouts with bases loaded
6th highest LOB/game (and worst in MLB for this stat on the road)
26th in runs scored in the third inning
27th in runs scored in the eighth inning (last night was a nice exception)
27th in sacrifice flies on the road
28th in BA in the month of August
So in spite of the first set of stats, which sound promising, you can see why (lack of clutch hitting) the Reds are so poor in 1-run games, and why their losses are more often due to hitting than pitching. The Reds will score ten runs in one game, and then go completely to sleep for a few days in a row.
To update an earlier statistic, in their 61 losses:
- the Reds' pitching and defense have given up more than league average runs/game only 32 times
- the Reds have failed to score league average runs/game 49 times
Likewise, the pitching gets too little credit for the wins. In the 58 so far:
- the Reds have scored at least league average runs/game 41 times
- the Reds have held the opposition below league average 47 times
So in all the 119 games combined, the Reds' offense has done its job 53 times (45%), and the pitching/defense 76 times (64%).
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Wrong guys getting too many chances?
Players in the top 50 this year for total men on base during their plate appearances, with bad rates (less than 14%) of converting those chances into RBIs:
MLB rank of chances - Player - RBI%
16 - Jay Bruce - 13.43
17 - Carlos Santana - 11.65
18 - Omar Infante - 10.04
20 - Casey McGehee - 12.74
23 - Torii Hunter - 13.18
29 - Michael Cuddyer - 12.65
30 - Alcides Escobar - 11.07
37 - James Loney - 10.98
40 - Alexei Ramirez - 13.06
43 - Jayson Werth - 8.68
44 - Brennan Boesch - 13.69
49 - Carlos Pena - 12.97
50 - Dan Uggla - 8.40
For some players, failures in these situations are an anomaly, while some make a habit of it.
Unfortunately Jay Bruce falls into the latter category, as he was also in the top 50 in chances last year and had an even worse conversion rate (11.11%)
The 11 players in the top 120 for chances and falling below the 14% cutoff line in both 2010 and 2011:
Jay Bruce
Michael Cuddyer
Jayson Werth
Nick Markakis
Mark Reynolds
Colby Rasmus
Lyle Overbay
Alcides Escobar
Carlos Pena
Chone Figgins
Juan Pierre
Bruce, Cuddyer, Escobar and Pena were in the top 50 for chances each season and thus have thrown away massive amounts of scoring opportunities for their teams.
Source I used to collect the data:
<http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/RBIPCT.py?StartDate=03%2F30%2F2011&EndDate=07%2F02%2F2011&SortField=1.0*%28OnRBI.RBI-OnRBI.HRs%29%2FOnRBI.RunnersOn&SortDir=desc&MinPA=50Friday, July 1, 2011
More NL Central comparisons
As we have basically reached the halfway point, here are more stats to consider. Keep in mind that the Brewers and Cardinals are tied for 1st, and the Reds are tied with the Pirates for 3rd.
May - 1 = tie (MIL and STL), 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = PIT, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL
ERA ranks by month
March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
May - 1 = PIT, 2 = MIL, 3 = STL, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL
So Cincinnati is on the upward trend in pitching, thanks mostly to getting healthy.
OBP by month
March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = MIL, 3 = CIN, 4 = PIT
May - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = PIT, 4 = MIL
June - 1 = CIN, 2 = PIT, 3 = PIT, 4 = STL
While the offense has been very inconsistent, overall it did better than these other contenders in June.
Winning percentage
March/April - 1 = STL, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = PITMay - 1 = tie (MIL and STL), 3 = PIT, 4 = CIN
June - 1 = PIT, 2 = CIN, 3 = MIL, 4 = STL
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Leadoff Hitters and First Inning Offense
I mentioned in the previous post that Stubbs' OBP was insufficient for a leadoff man. While certainly not ideal, he's a long way from being the worst choice out there.
In fact, among the past 20 World Series winners (beginning with the Reds, ending with the Giants) five had equal or worse leadoff batter OBPs. Not that it's Hall of Fame company - Dan Gladden, Andres Torres, Luis Castillo, Devon White and Marquis Grissom.
In looking at these statistics I happened upon one other comparison between the current Reds and past champions, which is less favorable. All of the recent champions have been strong offensively in the first inning, scoring an average of 12.68% of their runs in that frame.
The lowest percentage, and only one under 10%, belonged to the 1996 New York Yankees (9.64%). Checking in at a whopping 17.84% were the 1997 Marlins - curiously so, considering their poor leadoff performance that season.
Our beloved Redlegs have been slow starters in 2011. After posting a respectable first inning run total in 2010, only 8.99% of their runs (34 of 378) have come in the opening inning this year.
As an inevitable result, the opposition has scored first in 62% of the games (48 of 78) and the Reds are 22-26 in those contests, only achieving such a decent record because of their late inning heroics.
Want specific players to blame? Among the three players with the most first inning at-bats, only Brandon Phillips hits well (.308 BA). Stubbs is an abysmal .177 and Votto an uncharacteristic .262 (but his OBP is still .395).
Guys like Jay Bruce (.292) and Scott Rolen (.267) likely have their statistics skewed upward by the fact they would only bat in the first if the Reds are succeeding against the pitcher.
In conclusion, we're still searching for our man at leadoff. Heisey may have hit pretty well now for a few games, but he's still only 2 for 11 in the first inning.
I've long thought that we should give Fred Lewis a shot now and then, as he does boast a career leadoff average higher than his overall average, and if I recall correctly he is the ONLY player on the Reds' roster with such a statistic.
This may (hopefully) become moot, with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Dave Sappelt. Zack Cozart is another player with potential to give the Reds' inconsistent offense a shot in the arm, but that's a discussion for another day.
In fact, among the past 20 World Series winners (beginning with the Reds, ending with the Giants) five had equal or worse leadoff batter OBPs. Not that it's Hall of Fame company - Dan Gladden, Andres Torres, Luis Castillo, Devon White and Marquis Grissom.
In looking at these statistics I happened upon one other comparison between the current Reds and past champions, which is less favorable. All of the recent champions have been strong offensively in the first inning, scoring an average of 12.68% of their runs in that frame.
The lowest percentage, and only one under 10%, belonged to the 1996 New York Yankees (9.64%). Checking in at a whopping 17.84% were the 1997 Marlins - curiously so, considering their poor leadoff performance that season.
Our beloved Redlegs have been slow starters in 2011. After posting a respectable first inning run total in 2010, only 8.99% of their runs (34 of 378) have come in the opening inning this year.
As an inevitable result, the opposition has scored first in 62% of the games (48 of 78) and the Reds are 22-26 in those contests, only achieving such a decent record because of their late inning heroics.
Want specific players to blame? Among the three players with the most first inning at-bats, only Brandon Phillips hits well (.308 BA). Stubbs is an abysmal .177 and Votto an uncharacteristic .262 (but his OBP is still .395).
Guys like Jay Bruce (.292) and Scott Rolen (.267) likely have their statistics skewed upward by the fact they would only bat in the first if the Reds are succeeding against the pitcher.
In conclusion, we're still searching for our man at leadoff. Heisey may have hit pretty well now for a few games, but he's still only 2 for 11 in the first inning.
I've long thought that we should give Fred Lewis a shot now and then, as he does boast a career leadoff average higher than his overall average, and if I recall correctly he is the ONLY player on the Reds' roster with such a statistic.
This may (hopefully) become moot, with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Dave Sappelt. Zack Cozart is another player with potential to give the Reds' inconsistent offense a shot in the arm, but that's a discussion for another day.
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