Reds 2012 WAR: Position Players

Using Fangraphs' wonderful WAR Graphs tool, here are some charts of the careers (by age) of Cincinnati's main projected infielders, outfielders, and pitchers for 2012.

Positions 3-6 

Note: Both Cozart and Frazier were 25, with WAR of 0.7 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: We'd obviously be delighted to get the same sort of production in 2012 from the right side of our infield that we got in 2011.  It's difficult to imagine the left side doing any worse...one would have to think that either Rolen or Cozart will stay healthy and productive enough to boost their WAR.  Outside of those two possibilities, I don't have much faith in any combination of Janish/Francisco/Valdez/Frazier/Cairo/call-ups to provide big numbers.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 13.1 (all these totals according to baseball-reference, not Fangraphs)
My estimate for 2012: 15.0


Positions 7-9

My thoughts on this: The entire outfield really needs to prove itself.  Bruce is clearly the class of this group but needs more consistency.  He and Stubbs went downhill from 2010 to 2011 (Bruce mostly due to defense, Stubbs mostly due to strikeouts).  It really feels like THE year for both of them to show improvement (at least getting very close to a return to 2010 levels) or they may never be quite the players for which we hoped.  I'm fine with Ludwick as a relatively low-risk acquisition, although obviously all of us wanted a splashier solution in LF...hopefully he and Heisey can push each other to at least a modestly successful performance.  Alonso, Sappelt, Lewis and Gomes are all gone from the 2011 group.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 6.2
My estimate for 2012: 8.0


Catchers

Note: Mesoraco was 23, with WAR of -0.1 on this graph.

My thoughts on this: Ramon's offense will be missed, but Hanigan is still a good contact hitter and solid defensively, and Devin has nowhere to go but up.

Total WAR from these positions in 2011: 3.6
My estimate for 2012: 4.0

Total WAR estimate for position players: 27 (+4.1 from 2011)

Conclusion: As everyone knows, the Two Princes (if you want to call me baby, just go ahead now) have moved to the AL and Brauny Lad is a 'roider on suspension.  While some want to automatically crown the Reds the offensive champions of the 2012 NL Central, we still need to see more out of guys other than Votto and Phillips.  One thing I always harp on is the fact that the Reds offense is extremely opportunistic and therefore somewhat overrated.  I do feel they will lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 (they were tied for second with Colorado, 27 runs behind St. Louis).