In the first game, it's Bronson Arroyo vs. Bud Norris.
Arroyo
vs Houston: 11-6, 4.46 in 20 starts
@ Minute Maid: 7-4, 5.24 in 12 starts
Best against: Quintero (1-17 with 8 Ks), Barmes (2-9)
Worst against: Carlos Lee (16-47, 3 HR, 11 RBI)
Bud Norris
vs Cincinnati: 0-1, 7.36 in 2 starts
@ Minute Maid: 12-10, 3.86 in 32 starts
Best against: BP (0-5), Stubbs (0-5)
Worst against: Hanigan (2-4, 4 RBI), Votto (1 HR, but also 3 K in 5 ABs)
Arroyo only has 9 quality starts out of 21 so far, which isn't good, but a turnaround still wouldn't be unprecedented. He had 9 quality starts at the same point in 2008 and an even worse ERA (by .16) but proceeded to lower it by about 1 full run over the final two months. Still doesn't forgive the performance so far...as we try to contend with the best teams over the next couple years, the rotation spots should all get better statistics than the ones he's posted in 2011.
Norris' record isn't any better at 5-7 overall but he's been much more consistent out there at a 3.39 ERA and 12/21 quality starts. His last three outings:
July 16: No decision, 5.2 IP, 4 ER vs Pittsburgh
July 22: Loss, 6.1 IP, 4 R (1 ER) at Chicago
July 27: No decision: 6.0 IP, 2 R (1 ER) at St. Louis
The Astros are a shell, and Arroyo needs to keep their offense down.
One problem: his historic HR/9 rate. 2.12 HR/9 this season, if continued through the end of the year, would be the worst by anyone with at least 150 IP since Lima Time in 2000. Combine that with the Crawford Boxes and it's not a welcome proposition.
Arroyo's career HR/9 at Minute Maid is 1.80, much higher than his career average.
To update a stat I've mentioned before, in only 4 Reds series all year has the winner of Game 1 gone on to lose that series.
In a home series against Houston and one against Atlanta, the Reds lost game 1 and won the series.
In a road series against Atlanta and one against LA, the Reds won game 1 and lost the series.
Makes Arroyo's start that much more important.
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