Cincinnati Reds: July 2012 Summary

The Reds went a ridiculous 19-7 in July (including the first 10-game winning streak since 1999) to remain in first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 62-41.  When the month began, they led Pittsburgh by 1 game.  In spite of Cincinnati's torrid pace, Pittsburgh barely lost any ground - they only trail by 3 games.  The Reds' lead over St. Louis expanded from 3.5 to 7 games.


Cincinnati won 5 series (including 4 sweeps), lost 1 (at the Dodgers) and split 1 (at home against the Diamondbacks). 



**From July 6th through July 29th, their record was an astonishing 17-2.**


Home record: 9-3 (8-2 on the only completed home stand, 1-1 ongoing)
Road record: 10-4 (4-4 to finish their 5-6 West Coast trip, 6-0 on their second trip)
vs West: 10-7
vs Central: 9-0 (nice!)


Overall offensive trends: The offense stepped up admirably in Joey's absence (he missed 15 of the 26 games).  The batting average dipped only 3 points from June to .262, and the OBP only 9 points to .323.  Five players trended up significantly in OPS+, five trended down, and three stayed about the same.  Ryan Ludwick was phenomenal, Rolen showed a surprising return to old form, and Xavier Paul provided some unexpected help as well.


Overall pitching trends: The staff was outstanding, and the main reason that the team was able to weather the Votto-less storm.  The overall ERA was 3.03 (the best of the year).  After an already-solid June, the rotation boasted even better stats, going 14-5 with a 3.29 ERA. In June, Aroldis was the only problem in the bullpen.  The exact opposite was true in July, when he was virtually the only dominant force.  Relievers not named Chapman posted a 1.68 WHIP.  But thanks to his exceptional work, the relief corps still went 5-2 overall with a 2.43 ERA. 


Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Rolen +91, Heisey +87, Ludwick +48, Mesoraco +46, Frazier +24


DOWN significantly from June (20 or more OPS+ points): Votto -102, Valdez -43, Cozart -37, Stubbs -30, Bruce -24


No significant change: Phillips, Hanigan, Cairo


Individual pitching trends:


UP significantly from June: Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey (all of whom had down months in June)

DOWN significantly from June: Leake, Simon, Arredondo

No significant change: everyone else




And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of July...

RANDY HITTER: Ryan Ludwick.  "Brother" led Reds regulars in batting average (.333), OPS (1.089), home runs (7) and RBI (19).

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Scott Rolen.  After looking like he was sinking toward retirement, he batted .321 in July with a .413 OBP (best among regulars).

RANDY STARTER: Homer Bailey.  4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that would've been even better without his implosion on the final day of the month.

Honorable mention: Bronson Arroyo (3-1), Johnny Cueto (4-1)

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Also Bailey.  He was coming off a losing record and 6 ERA in June.

RANDY RELIEVER: Aroldis Chapman.  An insanely easy choice...14.1 sparkling innings of shutout ball.  Only 6 hits allowed, 2 walks, and 31 strikeouts.  A perfect 13 for 13 on saves.

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Chapman.  June was his disaster month, with an 0-4 record and an ERA approaching 7.

RANDY NOOB: Xavier Paul.  7 for his first 13 as a Red, including 2 doubles and 2 key RBIs...we'll take it!

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Drew Stubbs.  A guy who really needed a confidence builder provided a huge boost on July 24th at Houston, going 3 for 4 including a homer that brought the Reds from down 2-1 to up 3-2 in the top of the 9th.  That was one of the biggest hits of the entire season so far.  Altogether, he was on base 4 of 5 times, with a strikeout and CS the only two blemishes on an awesome day.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Bronson Arroyo.  He started the Reds' first win streak of the month when, on July 6th at San Diego, he pitched a complete-game, three-hit shutout.  Bronson struck out 8, walked 1, and needed only 110 pitches to post the best game score by any Reds pitcher this year - 88. 

Longest winning streaks in Cincinnati Reds history

Here's a list of all the double-digit winning streaks (17 total) in Reds MLB history:
1) 14 games (1899)
2) 13 games (1890)
3) 12 games (1939, 1957)
4) 11 games (1894, 1896)
5) 10 games (1882, 1884, 1895, 1897, 1919, 1939, 1943, 1975, 1998, 1999, 2012)

Of course, the 1869 Red Stockings were a perfect 65-0.  However, that was not only a different franchise than the current one - it also was not an MLB team, as it was the only fully professional team in existence at the time.

The Reds have had 16 double-digit losing streaks, including a 19-gamer in 1914.

Since 1900, the Reds have had 9 double-digit winning streaks, including the current one.

Among the previous 8, only 3 occurred as late in the season as the current one.  


Considering the season in which streaks occurred, the date at which they occurred, and the effect on the standings, here are the most important since 1900:

1) 1999. 10 game streak through July 1st.  Started behind 5.5 games, finished up a half game on Houston.  Even if they ultimately missed the playoffs because of the play-in game, this streak was huge at the time.

2) 1939.  12 game streak in May.  Started behind 1.5 games, finished up 2 games.  Eventually won the NL pennant, partly thanks to another 10-game streak in July that boosted their lead from 8 to 12 games.

3) 1919.  10 game streak through August 26th.  Started up 6 games, finished up 9 games.  Eventually won the World Series.

4) 1975.  10 game streak through July 13th.  Started up 7 games, finished up 12.5 games.  Eventually won the World Series.

5) 2012.  10 game streak (and counting) through July 29th.  Started tied in the division, currently up 3 games.    


In case you were wondering:
Longest winning streak in MLB history: 26 games (New York Giants, 1916)
Longest winning streak in AL history: 20 games (Oakland Athletics, 2002)

Bring the All-Star Game back to Cincinnati

Since 1991, 22 of the 30 current MLB franchises have opened new, baseball-specific parks.


The only exceptions (either older, non-specific to baseball, or both):
Toronto
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers
Boston
Chicago Cubs
Oakland
Kansas City
Tampa Bay


Note that Toronto, Boston, Kansas City, the Angels and the Cubs have all hosted since 1990 anyway.


And because the A's and Rays both play in such abysmal stadiums, the Dodgers are the only team listed above whose long wait (since 1980) needs to be rectified.


But to get back on topic...


Of the 22 new parks, 15 have already hosted or been chosen as host of the Midsummer Classic, and the average wait was only 4.5 years from the the park's opening.




So 7 teams haven't been reciprocated, but the following four haven't been waiting very long:
Marlins (Marlins Park) - just opened in 2012
Twins (Target Field) -  just opened in 2010
Yankees (new Yankee Stadium) - opened in 2009, and they hosted the game in old Yankee in 2008
Nationals (Nationals Park) - opened in 2008




That leaves only 3 teams which have been "screwed" to any appreciable extent:
1) Cincinnati (GABP) - opened in 2003 (9 year wait) and haven't hosted since 1988 (24 year wait)
2) San Diego (PETCO) - opened in 2004 (8 year wait) and haven't hosted since 1992 (20 year wait)
3) Philadelphia (Citizens Bank) - opened in 2004 (8 year wait) and haven't hosted since 1996 (16 year wait)


2013 is already decided (Citi Field)
2014 will be in an AL park, likely Target Field
2015 is rumored to be a battle between Nationals Park and Marlins Park
2016 will be another AL year


As you can see, it will be a ridiculous injustice if GABP isn't chosen for 2017.  Even if the Reds get 2017, the 14-year wait would be a record for new MLB parks.

Cincinnati Reds: June 2012 Summary

The Reds went 15-12 in June to remain in first place in the NL Central with an overall record of 43-34.  When the month began, they led St. Louis by 1.5 games.  That lead has expanded to 3.5, but Pittsburgh has remained a worthy challenger, trailing by only 1 game entering play on July 1st.


Cincinnati won 4 series (including consecutive sweeps of the Indians and Mets), lost 4 (including a subsequent sweep at the hands of those same Indians), and lead 2-1 in the incomplete San Francisco series.


Home record: 8-7 (5-4 on the first home stand, 3-3 on the second...overall a bit disappointing)
Road record: 7-5
vs Central: 5-4
vs East: 3-0
vs West: 2-1
vs AL: 5-7 (what else is new...they always find a way to screw up interleague play)


Overall offensive trends: The hitting side made a very respectable showing in June, with a .265 average (23 points higher than May), a .332 OBP (26 points higher) and 112 OPS+ (14 points higher).  Seven players trended up significantly in OPS+, only two went down, and four stayed about the same.  Scoring 4.7 runs a game is definitely sufficient for a playoff contender. Hopefully they can keep this production up.


Overall pitching trends: The staff had mixed but still solid results.  Its ERA was 3.62 (the worst of the year so far) but the WHIP was 1.16 - the best of the year.  The main theme of the month was that the starting pitching fared very well.  The rotation was 11-6 with a 3.74 ERA, with Cueto, Leake and Latos all in top form.  The relief pitching was due for a shaky month, and it had one...but really, the only problem was Aroldis Chapman.  His 0-4 record and 6.97 ERA for June tells the story.   Everyone else did fine, especially Marshall.  Heading forward, the rotation looks good enough to keep us in the mix (barring injury).  The closer situation is an obvious concern.


Individual hitting trends: 

UP significantly from May (20 or more OPS+ points): Valdez +132, Ludwick +49, Rolen +44, Stubbs +38, Cozart +35, Bruce +25, Phillips +24


Note that Cozart, Rolen and Valdez (especially the latter two) improved from pretty dismal previous numbers.  Improvement is still improvement though.


DOWN significantly from May (20 or more OPS+ points): Heisey -54, Hanigan -50


No significant change: Votto +5, Frazier -14, Mesoraco +1, Cairo -12


Individual pitching trends:


UP significantly from May: Marshall, Cueto, Leake, Arredondo, LeCure, Ondrusek, Latos

DOWN significantly from May: Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman, Hoover

No significant change: Simon


And finally, my "Randy Awards" for the month of June.

RANDY HITTER: Joey Votto.  Batted .392 with 6 HR, 18 RBI.  An insane 221 OPS+

Honorable mention: Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce

RANDY MOST IMPROVED HITTER: Ryan Ludwick.  Raised his OPS significantly, contributed 6 HR and 13 RBI.

RANDY STARTER: Johnny Cueto.  Went 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA, had a complete game. 

Honorable mention: Mike Leake, Mat Latos

RANDY MOST IMPROVED STARTER: Mike Leake.  Had a 2.55 ERA (1.8 runs lower) and deserved a better result than only a 2-0 record in 6 starts.

RANDY RELIEVER: Sean Marshall.  0.77 ERA and 0.60 WHIP with 9.3 K/9.  

RANDY MOST IMPROVED RELIEVER: Also Marshall (lowered his ERA another 2+ runs), for the second straight month.

RANDY NOOB: Because no significant call-ups or acquisitions were made, I'm leaving this blank.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME HITTING PERFORMANCE: Jay Bruce, 6/29 at San Francisco.  Went 4 for 4 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI, backing up Leake's gem in an important 5-1 win.

RANDY SINGLE-GAME PITCHING PERFORMANCE: Mat Latos, 6/25 vs Milwaukee.  Threw a dominating, 13 strikeout complete game, giving up only 1 run and 4 hits.

Reds' NL Central standing at the All-Star Break

In the 18 previous years of the NL Central's existence, the Reds have been in 1st at the break 3 times (1994, 1995, 2010) and went on to win the division in each of those years - their only three titles.


The Reds were in 2nd place at the ASB four times (1999, 2000, 2002, 2006) and finished 2nd or 3rd each of those years.

They've only improved their divisional standing (games back or games ahead) after the break four out of eighteen times - 1995 (+4), 2006 (+0.5), 2007 (+0.5) and 2010 (+4). 


In other words, let's hope that over the remaining 9 games of the first half, they can hang on to this lead.

More random notes:

Only 7 of 18 times, the Reds were .500 or above at the break.
Only 6 of 18 times, the Reds finished the season .500 or above.

The 1996 team improved from 39-43 to finish .500.
The 2002 and 2006 teams fell off their winning paces to finish below .500.


In the 14 previous years of the current 6-team configuration, the Reds have finished in the top three only 6 times.  Thankfully they've never finished dead last, a spot normally reserved for the Pirates.

Reds All-Time Offensive Leaders in Interleague Play

Since interleague play began in 1997 the Cincinnati Reds have, without question, been a team in flux.  They've made only one playoff appearance (in 2010) and the lineup, aside from a few mainstays, has shifted on an almost annual basis.


For example, the cutoff I used in comparing rate stats for this post was 55 interleague games - which is not even equivalent to four full seasons of such contests.  Even so, only 10 players made the mark.

Active players underlined.  All statistics through June 21st, 2012 - so they exclude the Reds/Twins series.


Most games:
1) Griffey - 115
2) Phillips - 106
3) Dunn - 98
4) Casey - 93
5) Larkin - 71
6) Bruce - 70
7) Votto - 67
8) Reese - 66
9) LaRue - 61
10) A. Boone - 55


Most hits: 
1) Phillips - 132
2) Griffey - 105
3) Casey - 94
4) Dunn - 87
5) Larkin - 82


Most doubles:
1) Tie - Larkin, Votto and Phillips - 18
4) Casey - 17
5) Tie - Dunn and Bruce - 16


Most triples:
1) Larkin - 4
2) Numerous others tied with 1


Most home runs:
1) Griffey - 32
2) Dunn - 28
3) Votto - 18
4) Phillips - 17


Most RBIs:
1) Griffey - 71
2) Phillips - 62
3) Dunn - 56
4) Votto - 49
5) Casey - 43


Most walks:
1) Dunn - 59
2) Griffey - 43
3) Larkin - 39
4) Votto - 38
5) Casey - 30


Most strikeouts:
1) Dunn - 125
2) Griffey - 102
3) Bruce - 72


Most stolen bases:
1) Phillips - 20
2) Reese - 14
3) Tie - Freel and Stubbs - 10


Best batting average:
1) Phillips - .317
2) Larkin - .314
3) Votto - .298


Best on-base percentage:
1) Larkin - .401
2) Votto - .394
3) Dunn - .361


The biggest surprises from this list, for me:


- Brandon Phillips dominated a bunch of categories.  I didn't expect him to have the best batting average or second-most RBIs.  Very impressive.


- Joey Votto with a batting average below .300 is a shocker.

Baseball Card Scans: 6 Murderers, 4 Mustaches and 3 Managers

Okay, so not actual murderers.  They just look like it.  But the mustaches and managers are real!


First, the guys who look like they might kill you, each in their own unique way.  Click the photos to enlarge.

On to the mustaches.  You'll notice that Tom Brookens appears again here, because he's got a killer 'stache...literally.

And finally, some early pictures of eventual managers.  How many of their teammates figured these guys would coach?