A Review of the Reds' April Pitching

The Reds have definitely shown some improvement on the mound in 2012.  Unfortunately, the loss of Madson has prevented this from being a truly special group of pitchers.  With him around, perhaps we'd be enjoying Chapman as a starter - likely in place of Leake, who has performed the worst in the rotation so far.

When compared to the two previous complete seasons of Cincinnati baseball, the Reds' April 2012 numbers stack up best of the group in the following categories:

ERA+ (109)
WHIP (1.29)
HR/9 (0.8)
K/BB (2.39)

BULLPEN

My grades for the relievers in April:
Chapman: A+
Ondrusek: A+
Arredondo: A
Simon: B-
LeCure: C-
Marshall: D
Bray: incomplete (injury, only 2.2 innings pitched)
Hoover: incomplete (only 3 inning pitched)

The relief corps has done very well, only allowing 23% of inherited runners to score, and holding opposing batters to a .210 average.  The only problem is that we've had to lean so heavily on the top performers. 

Aroldis Chapman and Logan Ondrusek have been absolute maniacs, with a combined 23.1 scoreless innings where they've allowed only 19 total baserunners (knock on wood).

ROTATION

I'd grade our five as follows:
Cueto: A+ 
Arroyo: A (great bounceback from 2011 so far, and we've needed it with Leake's dropoff)
Bailey: C+
Latos: D
Leake: F

It's reasonable to expect that Cueto and Bailey will finish the season roughly where they are now.  Arroyo will probably regress a bit, and hopefully both Latos and Leake (or a replacement for Leake) will improve enough to more than offset that, giving the Reds a very solid rotation.  Likely not enough to get the Reds a division title (unless they make a significant hitting acquisition), but very good nonetheless.

A few more random notes on the rotation:

OK: The starters' 1st inning ERA is about a run better than last year, but still a run worse than 2010


BAD: The batting average against our starters is the highest of the past three seasons, with only Cueto's lower than league average.

GOOD: The Reds' daytime ERA is only 3.06, meaning both our bats and our arms are best in the sunlight.  Just wish we had more day games...

BAD: The starters have only achieved 50% quality starts and are averaging only 6 innings per start, due mostly to high pitch counts.  

BAD: All five starters are striking out less than 20% of batters faced, including Latos with the worst rate of his career so far.


INDIVIDUAL STATS:


Best Win Probability Added:
Chapman 1.1
Ondrusek 0.8
Cueto 0.7


Worst WPA: 
Marshall, Leake and Latos: -0.7


Best ERA+
Cueto 273 (best of career)
Arredondo 154 (best of career)
Arroyo 141 (best since 2006)


Worst ERA+
Leake 58 (his worst of past three seasons)
Latos 64 (his worst of past three seasons)
LeCure 70 (his worst of past three seasons)


As you can see, these ERA+ numbers are all more severe in both directions than they'll ultimately be for the entirety of 2012...hopefully the positive changes outweigh the negative over the balance of the season.