Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Hot and Cold by WPA

WPA is Win Probability Added. For any play, this ranges from -1 to 1, with most values close to zero. Like many other statistics, it's readily available and sortable on fangraphs.com.

Joey Votto is the leader in all of MLB in positive WPA accumulated (15.45), and second in overall WPA (add in his negative outcomes) to Bautista. For reference, he was second last year in MLB to Miguel Cabrera in both positive and overall WPA.

This metric points out the inconsistency of Bruce, Phillips and Stubbs - the only other Reds with "strangle-holds" on their respective positions, such that they have had opportunities to accumulate plenty of positive and negative WPA.

The three are ranked as follows (on fangraphs) in MLB for 2011 +WPA:
Bruce - 15th
Phillips - 30th
Stubbs - 44th

But they nearly (and in the case of Stubbs, fully) offset these positive outcomes with negative ones, as seen in their rankings for negative WPA:
Stubbs - 3rd in MLB
Bruce - 5th
BP - 15th

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