Mr. Redlegs is watching you. Always.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Drew Stubbs

Count me among those who welcomed the move down in the order for Drew Stubbs. His .325 OBP isn't going to cut it for a leadoff guy.

That being said, I haven't by any means given up on Drew. He hasn't even played in two full seasons' worth of games at the major league level - 42 in 2009, 150 in 2010, 76 so far in 2011.

One distressing aspect is, of course, his strikeout rate - exactly one-third of all his at-bats this year - and the fact it has slowly worsened rather than improved.

A couple stats to ponder, from fangraphs, for the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons:

Line drive % of balls in play - 21.1 - 15.5 - 19.6
Infield hit % of ground balls - 18.5 - 12.0 - 10.3

It would certainly be nice to see Stubbs trying to get on base via bunt more often (only 3 attempted this season), but this is held back by the fact that, well, he's terrible at bunting.

Back to the original issue of strikeouts, fangraphs provides a window into why he does so frequently. He recognizes strikes (and swings accordingly) right along with league average. And in fact does a better job than average laying off balls outside the zone (swinging 25% of the time, compared with 30% average).

The problem is he doesn't make contact when he swings. Only 56% of the time (68% average) for balls, and 82% (88% average) for strikes. You might be saying, "but I see him strike out looking all the time." That might be so, but more contact earlier in the count would go a long way toward preventing it.

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