I've been looking at payroll vs. results from a variety of angles. Some argue, based on the Rays' ability to make the playoffs and the Marlins' two World Series titles, that the class disparity in MLB is overblown. While it's true that high-payroll teams can struggle if poorly managed and low-payroll teams can succeed with good management, scouting and a little luck, it's still much easier to win big if you pay big. I'll show a couple graphs to support my viewpoint in some upcoming posts. For now I wanted to focus on the teams that have been managed well and managed poorly.
I examined the period from 1998-2011. The dramatic payroll class disparity started forming in the mid-90s, but since 1998 was the most recent expansion and I wanted to average evenly across years for all teams, I started with that timepoint. I then broke the teams down into four tiers based on the average number of millions spent in payroll for each regular season win achieved.
Tier 1 ($1.1 million or more per win) - Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Cubs
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 7
Best-managed - Yankees (13 playoffs/4 titles), Red Sox (8/2)
Worst-managed - Mets (3/0), Cubs (4/0)
Tier 2 ($900,000 to 1.099 million per win) - Cardinals, Braves, Angels, Phillies, Giants, White Sox, Astros, Rangers, Orioles, Tigers, Mariners
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 4.36
Best-managed - Cardinals (8 playoffs/1 title), Braves (9/0), Angels (6/1)
Worst-managed - Orioles (0/0), Tigers (2/0), Mariners (2/0)
Tier 3 ($700,000 to 899,000 per win) - Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Indians, Blue Jays, Reds, Rockies, Brewers
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.57
Best-managed - Diamondbacks (5 playoffs/1 title)
Worst-managed - Blue Jays (0/0), Reds (1/0)
Tier 4 (less than $700,000 per win) - Twins, Athletics, Rays, Padres, Marlins, Nationals/Expos, Pirates, Royals
Average playoff appearances per team out of 14 seasons - 2.25
Best-managed - Twins (6 playoffs/0 titles), Athletics (5/0)
Worst-managed - Nationals (0/0), Pirates (0/0), Royals (0/0)
So during this 14-year period, if I had to rank the teams based on overall results achieved for money spent, I'd list them as follows.
The best:
1) Yankees
2) Cardinals
3) Twins
4) Braves
5) Red Sox
6) Diamondbacks
7) Athletics
8) Angels
The worst:
1) Orioles
2) Mets
3) Blue Jays
4) Cubs
5) Mariners
6) Tigers
7) Reds
8-10) Nationals/Pirates/Royals
Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending upward: Phillies and Rays (especially if either wins a title this season)
Teams that don't appear on either list but are trending downward: Dodgers, White Sox, Astros
